Climate forecast for the end of 2021 – Paragliding Pura Vida
Under the current circumstances and forecasts, it is very likely that the rainy season will last longer than normal in most of the Pacific, and that, even in the middle of the dry season, surprise rains will occur because the La Niña phenomenon is predicted to last until March of next year.
La Niña in the Pacific. In the second period of the rainy season, and due to the greater presence of storms associated with cyclonic events in the Caribbean, statistics from previous years indicate that up to 80% of the periods recorded in which La Niña has been present have coincided with floods in the North Pacific.
La Niña in the Caribbean. Although the number of cold fronts increases during La Niña—especially in November—the average annual rainfall remains normal or even below average. However, a decrease in rainfall is observed in the months of July, August, and September.
Outlook for the end of the 2021 rainy season.
Regarding the Atlantic hurricane season, to date 20 cyclones have been recorded (13 tropical storms, 3 minor hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes), none of which have affected the country. However, October and November have historically been the months with the greatest threats to the country from these phenomena, especially in the context of La Niña and the warming of the Caribbean Sea.
However, there is a possibility that a tropical cyclone could form in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea area between November 12 and 26.
The Northern Hemisphere winter season is approaching, a period marked by increased trade winds, lower average temperatures, and the impact of cold fronts. While there is no strong evidence that La Niña significantly affects these patterns, which depend on the dynamics of the North Pole and the boreal winter, similar past years have not shown trends toward strong or very low cold front activity. Therefore, as a first approximation, the cold front season is expected to be normal, with approximately two events.
| Rainy Season Exit | Dear | Climatologically |
|---|---|---|
| North Pacific | After the 3rd week of November. | Between the 1st and 2nd week of Nov. |
| Central Valley | After the 3rd week of November. | 2nd week of Nov. |
| Central Pacific | After the 3rd week of Dec. | 1st and 2nd week of Nov. |
| South Pacific | 1st – 2nd week of January | 4th week of Dec. |
Paragliding Catalog and Price Guide 2021
